Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
